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College bowl season is almost here, so it’s time to pull out your $5, talk to that geek in IT running the work confidence pool, and get that entry finally filled out.  Trust me, some of these early games will require an outside rooting interest.  If you’re anything like most people, then you get lost in this sea of really meaningless bowl games that are starting on Saturday.

We have you covered.  From the New Mexico bowl to the epic National Championship showdown.  From undefeated majors to 6-6 “who the hell are theys”.  We’ve poured through all the data, scoured the point spreads, reminisced about beer bongs, and analyzed pictures of the cheerleaders to run through our calculations to find the optimal confidence.  And when that failed, sometimes we pulled it out the proverbial ass.

What follows is the fruit of that labor.  I joined up with Matt Harbaugh and we each break down every game with a confidence winner, against the spread winner, and a few thoughts on each of our takes.  This is our college football monolith article.

And this year we also decided to compare our results against that of a random member of the fairer sex around the statleague offices.  She’ll give you a picture into the mind of that lady in accounting who will probably end up winning your office pool.  Also, even though we tried repeatedly to explain point spreads to her, she just refuses to get it and we just filled in her ATS picks on the same side as the confidence.  Her end excuse is officially “gambling has no place in intercollegiate athletics and football can be enjoyed on it’s own merits” or some other bullshit.

Part 1 – Part 2 – Part 3 – Part 4 – Summary

AT&T Cotton – Jan 2, 2:00 pm

#19 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) vs Mississippi Rebels (8-4) -3

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 3 Oklahoma State
ATS – Oklahoma State +3
The Cowboys are rocking the #6 rushing defense in the country.  This could be a little inflated due to the Big 12’s obsession with huge passing numbers, but it’s still a good defense.  If they can stop Ole Miss early, I like their chances to pull the game out straight up.  The Rebels have been playing up to their potential this year and are due for a yearly let down.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 9 Mississippi
ATS – Mississippi -3
The didn’t live up to our preseason ranking bowl should be a good game.  The Big 12 didn’t live up to expectations this year and I don’t expect it to improve during bowl season.  Not even T-Boone can buy the Pokes a win here.

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 26 Oklahoma State
ATS – Oklahoma State +3
“Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains! Oklahoma,  O-K-L-A-H-O-M-A, OK!”  I love that musical!

AutoZone Liberty – Jan 2, 5:30 pm

Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) vs East Carolina Pirates (9-4) +7.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 27 Arkansas
ATS – Arkansas -7.5
The Razorbacks average over 300 yards per game throwing the ball while the Pirates are the 110th ranked defense against the pass in the country.  Uh-oh.  Arkansas should bend the Pirates over and dominate.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 27 Arkansas
ATS – Arkansas -7.5
Woo Pig Sooie!!  The Razorbacks use this game to spring board into what should be a big 2010 season.  East Carolina has the third worst passing defense in the country.  A prime matchup for Petrino and Mallett.

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 25 East Carolina
ATS – East Carolina -7.5
A pirate’s life for me!  Well not really, but I had to choose someone.

Valero Alamo – Jan 2, 9:00 pm

Michigan State Spartans (6-6) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) -8

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 29 Texas Tech
ATS – Texas Tech -8
Year in and year out the Red Raiders have one of the best passing offenses in the country and this year is no different.  They air it out for a monster 380 yards per game and I just don’t see any way the Spartans stop them.  I know picking against the Big 11 so many times is going to bite me in the ass, but I doubt it’s this game.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 33 Texas Tech
ATS – Texas Tech -8
Michigan State wasn’t going to win this game before the frat house brawl that suspended a bunch of their players.  Texas Tech loves torturing Big 10 teams in bowl games.  Remember that second half against Minnesota a couple of years back?

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 16 Texas Tech
ATS – Texas Tech -8
Leaches (play on words people) can be a nuisance, and I’m sure Texas Tech will be for the Spartans.

Tostitos Fiesta – Jan 4, 8:00 pm

#6 Boise State Broncos (13-0) vs TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) -7

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 25 TCU
ATS – Boise State +7
The Red Headed Stepchild Bowl.  For some reason the BCS felt the need to throw the little undefeated mid major teams that could into a bowl together.  They both have arguments that they should be in the national championship picture to play with the big boys, and instead of getting to prove themselves against a good big school they are made to play each other so we still don’t know how they stack up.  We should have a playoff system so they could prove themselves worthy of a seat at the big table  It’s bullshit.  Anyway, I think they are both talented but TCU has a definite edge.  I don’t ever count out the Broncos scoring, so I am betting them to cover the touchdown.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 21 TCU
ATS – Boise State +7
Analysts are handing this game to TCU which makes me uncomfortable.  Who am I to argue with a brilliant football mind like Jesse Palmer?  The TCU defense and a seasoned QB in Andy Dalton will carry the day.

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 34 Boise State
ATS – Boise State +7
Mascots are supposed to be cute or intimidating, and a horned frog is neither.  I’m going with the broncos.

FedEx Orange – Jan 5, 8:00 pm

#10 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) vs #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) -4

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 2 Iowa
ATS – Iowa +4
The battle in the trenches should be the only thing interesting in this snooze-fest.  If Iowa can step it up on defense and stop the Yellow Jackets insane running attack, then we know from the rest of the season that somehow the Hawkeye offense will find a way to be in it at the end.  I love them to cover the number, and will take a small confidence chance that they can pull it out straight up.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 20 Iowa
ATS – Iowa +4
I love the idea of Iowa having a month to figure out how to defend the triple option.  With how tough their front seven plays I like the odds they figure it out.  Stanzi coming back is a big plus (seriously).  I feel dirty for everything I have just written.

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 2 Georgia Tech
ATS – Georgia Tech -2
I just can’t pick the Hawks.  Can’t do it.  Go Yellow Jackets!

GMAC – Jan 6, 7:00 pm

#25 Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2) vs Troy Trojans (9-3) +3.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 13 Central Michigan
ATS – Central Michigan -3.5
The Chippewas have a very balanced team that pretty much nobody in the country knows about.  And most of us don’t want to.  Troy is a one dimensional passing squad and I think Central Michigan can take that away from them.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 24 Central Michigan
ATS – Central Michigan -3.5
I have heard of Central Michigan’s quarterback and I know he is good.  That’s all I need.  I’m going heavy on the Chippewas.

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 27 Central Michigan
ATS – Central Michigan -3.5
This is just a guess.  I really have no reasoning.

Citi BCS National Championship – Jan 7, 8:00 pm

#2 Texas Longhorns (13-0) vs #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) -5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 34 Alabama
ATS – Alabama -5
The national championship game is my highest confidence game.  No guts, no glory.  If I’m going to be in the running for first place, I want it to come down to this game.  We have two of the best defenses in the country facing off for all the proverbial marbles.  The Crimson Tide have done nothing this season to lead me to believe they will let the Longhorns make this a game.  They have been the best team in the nation and will continue to be the best team in the nation.  Roll Tide!

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 31 Alabama
ATS – Alabama -5
This Texas team isn’t as good as last years team, that got screwed out of title game appearance, but you wouldn’t know it because the Big 12 was down this year.  Alabama in a rout, which to them is like 27-13.

Fairer Sex’s take:
Confidence – 1 Texas
ATS – Texas +5
A few years back, I was at an Alabama game and sat through endless rounds of “Roll Tide, Roll Tide.”  I think Texas will score a billion points in the first quarter, so they don’t have to listen to that chant.  Plus Colt McCoy is the best name ever!  It’s just fun to say.