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College bowl season is almost here, so it’s time to pull out your $5, talk to that geek in IT running the work confidence pool, and get that entry finally filled out.  Trust me, some of these early games will require an outside rooting interest.  If you’re anything like most people, then you get lost in this sea of really meaningless bowl games that are starting on Saturday.

We have you covered.  From the New Mexico bowl to the epic National Championship showdown.  From undefeated majors to 6-6 “who the hell are theys”.  We’ve poured through all the data, scoured the point spreads, reminisced about beer bongs, and analyzed pictures of the cheerleaders to run through our calculations to find the optimal confidence.  And when that failed, sometimes we pulled it out the proverbial ass.

What follows is the fruit of that labor.  I joined up with Matt Harbaugh and we each break down every game with a confidence winner, against the spread winner, and a few thoughts on each of our takes.  This is our college football monolith article.

And this year we also decided to compare our results against that of a random lady friend of the statleague offices.  She’ll give you a picture into the mind of that lady in accounting who will probably end up winning your office pool.  Also, even though we tried repeatedly to explain point spreads to her, she just refuses to get it and we just filled in her ATS picks on the same side as the confidence.  Her end excuse is officially “gambling has no place in intercollegiate athletics and football can be enjoyed on it’s own merits” or some other bullshit.

Part 1 – Part 2 – Part 3 – Part 4 – Summary

New Mexico – Dec 19, 4:30 pm

Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) vs Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) +10.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 32 Fresno State
ATS – Fresno State -10.5
Fresno State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 231.6 yards on the ground per game.  They finished their season playing for the win instead of the tie by going for the 2 point conversion to beat Illinois.  That momentum carries them over a Wyoming team that hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season and may just be happy to be in a bowl game.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 34 Fresno State
ATS – Fresno State -10.5
There are usually some mis-matches in the early bowl games and Vegas is flashing a bright blinking light on this game.  While Fresno has zero quality wins they have hung in against some quality clubs.  I’m going all in on the Bulldogs.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 10 Wyoming
ATS – Wyoming +10.5
Theoretically, a cowboy should be able to handle a bulldog.  Right?

St. Petersburg – Dec 19, 8:00 pm

UCF Knights (8-4) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) -2.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 4 UCF
ATS – UCF +2.5
Central Florida is 9-2 against the spread this year and seems to be more focused on winning than in their previous bowl appearances.  If their QB Brett Hodges can avoid the big mistakes then I think they can pull out this win against a Rutgers team that probably views this bowl game as a disappointment.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 16 Rutgers
ATS – Rutgers -2.5
Neither team has an impressive win on their schedule.  I’m taking Rutgers in the battle of the Knights.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 19 Rutgers
ATS – Rutgers -2.5
Knight vs. Knight is a tough one.  Scarlet is a passionate color, so I’m going with Rutgers.

R+L Carriers New Orleans – Dec 20, 8:30 pm

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (9-3) +3.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 8 Middle Tennessee State
ATS – Middle Tennessee State +3.5
The Blue Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The offenses should be closely matched, but I like Middle Tennessee State’s chances to cover the spread and even sneak out a win against the Golden Eagles.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 8 Southern Miss
ATS – Southern Miss -3.5
Southern Miss has won their last three bowls including two New Orleans bowls.  Their coach’s last name is Fedora.  Sounds like a pimp doesn’t he?  Go Golden Eagles.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 10 Middle Tennessee State
ATS – Middle Tennessee State +3.5
Golden Eagles makes me think of that show “Coach.”  If their assistant coach is anything like Luther VanDam, they are sure to lose.

MAACO Las Vegas – Dec 22, 8:00 pm

#18 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) vs #14 Brigham Young Cougars (10-2) +2.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 15 Oregon State
ATS – Oregon State -2.5
First game between ranked opponents of the year!  I give the mental edge to BYU since you’d think those kids at the Mormon university will be less tempted for all the great stuff that Vegas has to offer.  But the Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.  I give the edge to the Beavers (great name for a team playing in Vegas) who are 5-0 ATS vs a team with a winning record.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 12 Oregon State
ATS – Oregon State -2.5
Should be one of the most entertaining games of the bowl season.  I would feel better about Oregon State if the game wasn’t in Vegas.  Who is more likely to be distracted in Vegas a Pac-10 school or a bunch of Mormons?

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 9 Oregon State
ATS – Oregon State -2.5
Beavers and Cougars oh my! But I will say that beavers are clever little animals. Pick them to win.

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia – Dec 23, 8:00 pm

#23 Utah Utes (9-3) vs California Golden Bears (8-4) -3.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 18 California
ATS – California -3.5
Both of these teams ended their season with a loss, but the Bears have the added hindrance of only getting 18 days to prepare for the game.  Good thing it’s a game in their home state and they are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.  Meanwhile the Utes are rocking a 1-5 ATS record in their last 6 vs the PAC-10 and 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.  To quote the hooker in Fargo, “Go Bears!”

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 17 Utah
ATS – Utah +3.5
Utah consistently wins bowl games and California is consistently inconsistent.  Makes sense right?  I’m taking Utah.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 21 California
ATS – California -3.5
My Great Grandpa had a carved bear sitting on his desk.  He got it from some CA relatives.  So I guess the Golden Bears is my pick.

Sheraton Hawaii – Dec 24, 8:00 pm

Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) vs Southern Methodist Mustangs (7-5) +15

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 33 Nevada
ATS – Southern Methodist Mustangs +15
The Xmas eve gives us the biggest point spread of the bowl season.  The Wolf Pack ended their season losing to Boise State and are focused on making sure that just getting to a bowl isn’t enough.  I like them to roll, but I’m a little nervous about this spread being over 2 touchdowns and the Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.  I’m going counter to my confidence and going with Southern Methodist against the spread.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 32 Nevada
ATS – Nevada -15
Nevada has been dynamic using their “pistol” offense.  Could this be a “pistol whipping?”  I think so.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 20 Nevada
ATS – Nevada -15
Who is Southern Methodist University?  Seriously, I’ve never heard of them.

Little Caesars – Dec 26, 1:00 pm

Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) vs Ohio Bobcats (9-4) -2.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 5 Marshall
ATS – Marshall +2.5
The Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and won the last head to head meeting with the Bobcats 16-13 five years ago.  They also have an extra week to prepare.  I’m going out on a limb with this one, and the 5 confidence shows it.  But you have to have a few upset specials in the pick’em.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 3 Ohio
ATS – Ohio -2.5
Damn I miss Crazy Bread.  It was a doughy, buttery, garlicky, parmesan covered piece of heaven.  When my hometown store closed down it was a sad day.  Why have you forsaken my Little Caesars?  Ohio will probably win the game, but who cares.  There will still be an emptiness in my heart.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 8 Marshall
ATS – Marshall +2.5
“We are Marshall”  If Matthew McConaughey is on their side, they should win hands down.    By the way, neither team may play well if they all eat Little Caesers first!

Meineke Car Care – Dec 26, 4:30 pm

#17 Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) vs North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) +3

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 22 Pittsburgh
ATS – Pittsburgh -3
Pittsburgh is giving away tickets to students to try and get people down to Charlotte for this bowl game to help counter-act the almost home game for UNC.  The Tar Heels had a great season by their standards and ended the season with a heart breaking loss to NC State 28-27.  But nothing could beat the level of agony the Panthers feel after that 44-45 loss to undefeated Cincinnati due to bad extra points.  I think the Panthers either come out with vengeance or quit on the game before kickoff.  I’m leaning towards pissed off domination.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 14 Pittsburgh
ATS – Pittsburgh -3
Am I really going to pick a Wanny led team with money on the line?  Really?  Dion Lewis really helps.  The low confidence rating speaks for itself here.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 28 North Carolina
ATS – North Carolina +3
Dave Wannstedt caused my husband physical pain as the Bears coach.  I can only predict the same for Panther fans.

Emerald – Dec 26, 8:00 pm

Boston College Eagles (8-4) vs #24 USC Trojans (8-4) -9.5

Tai’s take:
Confidence – 31 USC
ATS – Boston College +9.5
Just an absolutely awful season by USC standards.  Fortunately for them, they get a bowl game in their home state and one of the opponents that they should match up really well against.  However, the Trojans are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games overall while the Eagles are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a 3-10 point dog.  Trojans pull it out, but no way am I betting on them covering almost 10 points.

Matt’s take:
Confidence – 23 USC
ATS – Boston College +9.5
Gamblers everywhere unite in their hatred of USC.  The Trojans have burned people all season.  Why am I so confident in this game?  Old habits die hard I guess.

Lady Friend’s take:
Confidence – 29 Boston College
ATS – Boston College +9.5
I’m so over USC.  Wouldn’t it be nice to see them lose at least one more game this season?  Sanchez is better eye candy than Matt Barkley.