There are two guys I read and like when betting on the UFC and I suggest you take a look at their articles for a more complete writeup:  Eric Foster (Performify) and Nicholas Bailey (The Humungus). These guys have good analysis of the fights, and while they don’t always agree I respect both of their lines of thought.  It’s good to have a guy you trust when you bet on something you don’t know a ton about but like a whole lot to watch at the bar.  The only think I don’t like is that by the time I read Humungus’s article the current lines are so out of whack from where he got it.

Here are the bets I laid down:

BJ Penn over Diego Sanchez -270 (2 units)

Cheick Kongo over Frank Mir +172 (1.5 units)

Stefan Struve over Paul Buentello -120 (2 units)

For anybody unfamiliar with Performity, he’s my go to expert when it comes to laying down money on the octagon.  I’ve followed him for a long time and he has never lead me astray, but admittedly I was a little too lazy to get in my bets for UFC 104 where he got creamed.  I’m not the only one who trusts his opinion, since every time he puts pen to paper and schools us all on his picks the lines immediately move.  Sometimes up to 20 percent.

But for UFC 105 he only breaks down the headline fight. Boo.  I guess I’ll have to take what I can get.  Performity is taking Brandon “The Truth” Vera over Randy “The Natural” Couture at +100.  Well I can tell you that this morning on matchbook.com Vera got up to +103, because I put a few units on it before this article was posted.  But now by the power of Performity he’s trading down around -112.  Still a value in my opinion.

I think this is the fight where Randy finally trips over his old balls and falls on his face.  He definitely has a path to victory because of his ability to take an insane amount of punishment without it phasing him.  Granite chin and stubborn enough to not tap out is a good combo.  But Vera can wrestle, he can strike standing up, and he should be able outlast if need be.  Randy looks good for an 46 year old man fighting guys who could be his son, but he hasn’t won very many fights since going over the hill.

I like Vera all the way down to -125.  I put 3 units down before reading Performity’s picks, but now I feel a lot better about them.