Yesterday (2-2):  -.25 units

All odds are from matchbook.com and home teams are in all caps.

1.22 units: Braves (Kawakami) -122 over METS (MAINE)

.51 units: Braves/Mets -102 OVER 8.5

McCann looking for his second HR against the Maine Vein tonight.

The Mets are pretty bad.  They barely beat my Cubs this week and that’s saying something.  Even with that gift momentum the Braves are still the hotter team.  Maine will give up some runs, and Kawakami is underrated.  Braves win big.

.5 units: Orioles (Guthrie) +206 over RED SOX (LESTER)

This pitching matchup is a lot closer than people give it credit for.  Guthrie has gone 6+ innings in each game so far and hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of them.  Lester got lit up the last time he was out.  I like putting a half unit on a terrible Baltimore team if I’m getting these long odds.

1.89 units: Twins (Pavano) -126 over ROYALS (MECHE)

My pick of the day.  Pavano had two good starts before getting torched by these same Royals last time out.  I can’t find a good Meche game.  Kansas City gets credit for a non-existent home field advantage while the Twins have been hot on the road.  I also have a lean towards the over 9.5, but don’t like the odds I’m currently getting.

.6 units: Yankees (Burnett) -120 over ANGELS (SANTANA)

Another road team?  I dunno, I just bet the numbers.  Both of these pitchers have been hot lately, so that’s a toss up.  Burnett didn’t give up a run in his last start so I guess that makes Santana’s one run complete game look like shit.  New York is the better team, they’ve been good on the road, and the Angels haven’t done anything good at home.  That’s good enough for a half unit bet.  Also a lean on under 9.5.

.5 units:  Mariners (Rowland-Smith) +144 over WHITE SOX (FLOYD)

1.01 units:  Mariners/White Sox -101 OVER 8.5

Floyd gave up 7 runs in a single inning last time out.  Yikes.  Rowland-Smith hasn’t been exactly setting the world on fire, but I’d give him an edge in this matchup.  He should add to that strikeout total with facing Chicago’s free swingers.  I handicapped this game much closer to a coin flip, so I’m jumping at +144.  Also I love the over 8.5 especially now while the Sox pitchers are struggling.

Somebody's about to get fucked up.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Defense and special teams are actually a very large part of post season fantasy. That’s because they usually have pretty consistent scoring, so the 4 game run of a #5 seed is immensely helpful. I think last year my best player overall on one of my squads ended up being the Arizona defense. Not only does that factoid illustrate my point, but it also points out how bad the rest of my team probably was.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Eight Five is hobbled but not forgotten.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Wide receivers, the original boom or bust proposition. No matter how much running backs angle to take that title away. Every post season you’ll see some of the big names get knocked out early going out with a whimper. There will be one no-name guy who goes all the way and becomes the savior of somebody’s team. And there will be the guy who just goes off even if he only lasts one game.

The key to wide receivers? Not sure. I’d just try to luck into getting one of each.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

It's uncomfortable for everyone when you send a team mate into a post game rape shower.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Kickers simply don’t matter. Good ones are only marginally better than the bad ones. The best kickers in playoff fantasy will end up being whoever is in the Super Bowl. So if you are really, really, really good at picking who will end up in the Super Bowl, then what are you doing wasting time with this nickel and dime fantasy shit? Start plopping some real dough down on the futures betting market.

*Updated – Matt Stover moved up to Adam Viniateri’s slot.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Even just one game with Gates is probably better than 3 with the guys at the bottom of this list.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

A lot of postseason fantasy drafts will forgo the TE position and just throw it in with a WR/TE flex. In those leagues the tight end position is obviously minimized to the point of only 6 maybe 7 of these guys being draft worthy. Clark and Gates are a definite cut above the rest, with the second tier ending with Celek. After that it’s even more of a crap shoot than what you normally expect.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

I'm diving head first into this Packer. That may have came out wrong.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

One common rookie mistake in a postseason draft is to overrate the top seeds. NFL parity has created a playoff system where somebody who plays on Wild Card weekend always seems to find their way into the Super Bowl. If you have players from that lucky team then you have a chance at 4 games with your stud, while the ceiling on Peyton Manning is 3 games. Don’t be afraid to take a flyer on a stud from a 6 seed.

It was a really weird year for running backs in the fantasy season. The NFL is now a passing heavy league where the dreaded running back by committee is becoming the rule instead of the exception. While a RB is still important, I still think that drafting 1-2 stud quarterbacks are more important to winning. In whatever order, I’m still looking at targetting a RB and QB in the first two rounds in which ever order.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

If only Flacco could light up the Bears every week.

I never understood why fantasy football has to end with the regular season. If the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

In some ways playoff drafts can be more interesting than the regular season since the number of games a team plays becomes a huge factor in who to draft. Huge. Take it from somebody who got dominated last year by a team including Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Santonio Holmes.

What does every playoff team except two have in common? Good to great quarterback play. The Jets and Ravens are the lone exceptions with rookie Sanchez and sophomore Flacco just playing the role of game managers. Every other team has a real man behind center that can take the entire team on his shoulders and carry them to victory. We’re seeing a golden age of good QBs in the NFL right now and there are a lot of future hall of famers in this playoff group.

So don’t miss out at QB in your draft. If you have a flex where you can start 2 of them, then do it. That gives you license to take a flyer early on a McNabb and hope the Eagles get hot at the right time to the tune of 4 games. If the parity era of the NFL has taught us anything it’s that there’s a very good chance a 5 or 6 seed will make it to the conference championship and into the Super Bowl.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Thank f'ing god the o-line is getting healthy.

NFL picks have been 6-7 for +3.3 units in the last 14 days pending tonight’s Vikings/Cardinals game.  Record could be better but at least we’re positive during this late season stretch of sharpened bookmakers.  All lines and odds published are from matchbook and current as of the time of writing.

Monday night football for week 13 finds Green Bay playing Baltimore at home.  This has already given Berman way too many opportunities to recycle the annoying “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” line in his mock Facenda baritone.  At least Favre isn’t involved in this game, so the count of how many mentions he gets during the broadcast should be kept in the lower double digits.

Ah, but to the game.  The Packers offense line has been banged up all year but this week finally gets healthy.  Their defense stops the run and pass as good or better than Baltimore but doesn’t get the credit for it.  The Packer offense is much, much better than their peers on the Ravens sideline.  Packers roll at home with a short number.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Baltimore +100  (3 units)

Can the Falcons run the ball without the Burner? God I hope so.

Colts -1 over Ravens -102  (4 units)

I really think everyone is over analyzing this one.  Sure, some lines stink like traps.  But do you really think that Vegas is going to put that line out to lure the public into betting EVEN MORE money on an undefeated team to beat a 5-4 squad?  Sometimes you just have to take the pity lay from your ex-girlfriend.

49ers +6.5 over Green Bay -106  (4 units)

San Francisco is 3-0-1 against the spread as road underdogs.  They have played all their games close except the one 35 point blowout.  Green Bay seems to be in safe mode on offense and have liked protecting the ball and letting their defense carry some weight.  All the signs are pointing towards a close game, so I’m betting on it.

Falcons over Giants ML +298  (2 units)

The Falcons may have lost Michael Turner, but this line seems like a pretty big over reaction to me.  It’s not like the Giants have been setting the world on fire during their 4 game losing streak.  If the Falcons can get anything going on the ground against the questionable New York defense then they have a chance to win this game.  Definitely better than the 25% chance that this line is giving them.

Lions -3.5 over Browns +107  (2 units)

I’m continuing my streak of betting on some of the worst games in football.  We don’t need to watch the games to gamble on them, right?  The Browns looked like a bad high school squad on Monday night and I have no reason to believe that they will improve.  The Lions at least have shown some glimpses of hope this year on their way to 1-8.

Eagles -3 over Bears -104  (2 units)

The Bears are not good.

All lines are current odds on matchbook.com as of the time of this article.

If Quinn throws another pick I will be crying too.

I have watched nearly every play of tonight’s Browns/Ravens MNF televised sleeping pill.  As I sit here entering hour three of this self-imposed hell,  I find that I am grasping for reasons why.  Is it because I’m a Browns diehard?  No.  Is it because I’m a degenerate gambler who is titillated by gambling on NFL unders?  Unfortunately not.  Is it because I’m a masochist who enjoys the pain that only watching the Browns offense can provide?  I don’t think so.  Could it be that my 1st place fantasy team is clinging to a 29 point lead that is currently under siege from the Ravens defense?  Bingo.

It’s been said that fantasy football can make any game watchable if you have players involved.  This game is certainly the test case.  There have been roughly three good plays.  A decent to good Ravens team appears content to play down to the level of the Browns, who I will go on record as saying have the worst offense that I have ever seen in the NFL.  (I watched the 2004 Bears season.  I feel this qualifies me to comment.)  I don’t care.  I’m hanging on every play as if it matters even though no single game has probably mattered less.   I think the 300 people left in Cleveland Browns stadium agree with that statement.

My lead is down to 6 points and the Ravens offense is punting it back to the Browns.   Any chance they will take a knee?