See Joe Morgan faking excitement.

Welcome to the Homerun Derby, Chris Berman’s summer work out of bad puns, lame one-liners and exercise in local geography.  This years telecast was so boring that I could only make it through the first round before wanting to inflict harm on myself.  Good news for Boomer is that he finally found an analyst that lowers the bar far enough to allow his bloviating to shine.  Congrats Bobby V, thank you for not taking the Marlins job and staying on for the summer.   You are a supernova of jokes that have no punchline.  Here are some of tonight’s best and worst lines.  Enjoy!

(Tonight’s broadcasters Chris Berman, Bobby Valentine and Joe Morgan.)

Boomer:  We have a new compatriot this year…

Joe:  We have had a lot of them. 

We miss you Steve Phillips.  I hope AOL is intern free.

Bobby V:  I’m going to take Jose Ortiz.  He’s the man.  He’s ready to go. 

Unfortunately this person doesn’t exist.  It’s a shame Bobby’s not managing Stanley Ramirez and Jason Johnson in Florida.

Boomer:  I’m going with (pause for effect) a Canadian breeze… Vernon Wells.

Joe:  (Completely unimpressed with the selection.)  Any of them can win. 

There’s the Joe we love.  Surly and closed off to all outside opinion.  He’s the Billy Packer of MLB.

Bobby V:  David Oritz, whose middle name is hopefully Jose….

Tough start for Bobby V.  Does Japan have an ESPN equivalent he can transfer to when this doesn’t work out?

Boomer:  (About Chris Young.)  He’s patient enough.  Ask Cub fans if they know. 

Thanks big guy.  Did you run out of Bartman or Billy Goat references?

Bobby V:  Usually you hit batting practice with a batting cage.  Now you’re standing out there wide open. 

You’re right Bobby.  These guys never stand at home plate with no cage, except in every game they play.  Most of them aren’t wearing a hat either.  It’s an alien experience, like having a Miller Lite when you were expecting a Bud. 

Boomer:  (After a Wells homer.) Back, back, back, back, back, it’s outta here, eh? 

What no jokes about maple syrup or Canadians wearing all denim?  If you’re going stereotypes you have… to… go… all…the….way.  Wells was born in Shreveport, LA by the way. 

Boomer:  I don’t know how we would look in 3D but I think Erin Andrews would look pretty good. 

Stop talking about her like that.  She wants to be a serious reporter!

Erin Andrews:  What’s the key to hitting a bomb in this place?

Torii Hunter:  Swing hard.

Get the Sportscience guy out here to prove it!

Boomer:  Corey Hart, you have to have heart!

Uh-oh, he’s got a pun friendly last name.  I feel a downpour coming.

Boomer:  Obviously he’s taken that swing to heart!

Oh no.  My skin is crawling….. 

Boomer:  Corey Hart, the young man from Bowling Green is bowling them out of here!

Reaching critical mass….

Boomer:  Whoa, this one is waaaay back.  This one is on the way to San Juan Capistrano!

To his credit San Juan Capistrano is located Southeast of the ballpark, so it’s possible that home plate kind of faces that direction.  He’s not so lucky on his Torrance reference later. 

Joe:  Great game plan by Corey Hart.

Trying to hit the ball as far as he could as many times as possible is a great game plan in a homerun derby.  I know this an event that renders analysis useless, but that’s still pretty stupid.

Boomer:  As they say in Canada, “he put the ball on Holliday.”

That sounds more British than Canadian.  Now if you add an “eh” at the end, I wouldn’t have questioned a thing.

Boomer:  He had a good run with the gold balls. 

He-he, he talked about gold balls.

Boomer:  He (Papi) is such a face for baseball.

I have no idea what this means.  Maybe the WWL should have a one hour special to announce what buffet Papi will destroy after the Derby.

Joe:  He’s (Papi) not showing any sign of nervousness.

The guy has played in two world series, numerous playoff games, multiple all-star games and Homerun derbies, and starred in a couple of awkward steroid denial press conferences.  I doubt televised batting practice gets him real worked up, cage or no cage, hat or no hat.

Boomer:  I don’t want to keep heaping the praise (on Papi) but let’s not forget, when we talk about clutch hitters on this generation of baseball, his name has to be right in there. 

Brett Favre agrees with the heaping praise comments.  He’s never felt Berman has given him his due.

Joe:  He’s (Papi) had so many clutch hits….

Bobby V:  Like that.

Boomer:  GOOD-BYE!!

Let’s compare the 9th homer of a home run derby to clutch hits in the World Series.  They’re very comparable.

Joe:  Couple more like that and he (Papi) will be in good shape.

So the more homers the better?  Got it.  For his next act Joe will explain the intricacies of beer pong. 

Bobby V:  You really have to have presence to stand up there.

Corey Hart takes offense to this.

Boomer:  It’s a moon ball… To the moon Alice!

Bobby V:  Ok Ralph. 

Reference to TV/music/movies that nobody under retirement age will understand?  Check.

Will Ferrell:  What time is it?  Home-run o’clock! 

Points for Will Ferrell as I think he was openly mocking the broadcasting crew with this comment.

Boomer (Doing Ferrell doing Harry Caray):  Check out the kid in the sombrero!

I love this line.  God help me I do.  Berman got me to laugh once.  Dammit!

Boomer:  Wow, that’s almost to Torrance, OK. 

This joke could work if the ball entered the Earth’s orbit and circumnavigated the globe.  Forget it, the joke sucks.

Joe:  Miguel Cabrera is like Manny Ramirez in that he uses his upper body, lower body and his hands. 

As opposed to whom exactly?  I heard Babe Ruth used to hit homers with the barrel of the bat sticking out his zipper.  It was the original fat bat!

Boomer:  That one is on the way to Catalina Island!

…and I’m out.  That’s all I can take.  I’m human.

Make sure none of our guys pick this shit up.

Enter Wally Backman coaching for the South Georgia Peanuts.  He melts down on the umpire after his kid gets tossed from the game AND was magically wearing a mic for it.  Awesomeness ensues.  The clip is a deleted scene from the documentary “Playing For Peanuts”.

Alfonso Soriano wondering if he should swing harder next time.

Don’t let the fact it comes from “glass half full” Cubs play-by-play man Len Kasper make you question the validity of said case.  Wait a minute, it probably should.  On Tuesday’s Len and Bob blog on the WGN TV website, Lenny laid out a case that Alfonso Soriano’s recent surface of the sun hot streak could be due to a fundamental change in approach.  I’m all for finding a silver-lining in this crap cloud since Soriano will be a Cub for most of my adult life.  Let’s see if Len is making any salient points here.

He’s seeing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance, the most of his career (1st time he’s been above 4).

This is encouraging.  Probably a sample size thing. 

He’s swinging at under 17% of the 1st pitches he sees, which is ridiculously lower than his career 1st Pitch Swing % of 31.3.

This is more encouraging.  Could he be growing as a hitter, instead of just hacking like a beer league softball player?

His swing and miss % is 23.7, which is his lowest in a full season.

Sorry Len.  I think this just means he’s hitting the ball well.  Let’s review the rule of small sample sizes.

His 35.8 groundball % is the lowest of his career (meaning he’s hitting more flyballs than ever).

See above. 

It has certainly been refreshing to see that Sori can still get white hot at times.  After last season you had to wonder if he even had that in him any more.  The Cubs desperately need him to be a lineup presence as he can carry the team during these stretches.  With Aramis Ramirez approaching the game with the blank look of Island Sayid, Sori’s bat is more important than ever.  However these hot stretches have defined his entire career.  He’s like a python swallowing his stats whole and not eating again for weeks.  (Animal Planet did not approve this analogy.)

Do I think that we are really seeing the genesis of a smarter, more patient Soriano?  Unfortunately, I don’t.  Do I think hitting shaman Rudy Jaramillo is having a Dave Duncan-like effect on our favorite overpaid superstar?  Sorry.   It’s a trademark Soriano hot streak.  You can expect to be cursing at him through your TV very soon.

All lines are from matchbook.com and the home team is listed in all caps.

Year to Date:  12-17-1  (-1.07 units)

.75 units:  Diamondbacks / Rockies +109 UNDER 8.5

1.61 units:  Yankees (Hughes) -161 over ORIOLES (MILLWOOD)

1 unit:  Yankees / Orioles -103 UNDER 9

1 unit:  Red Sox / Blue Jays +110 UNDER 8.5

Mark Teixeira circling the bases after a big homerun. It must be after Memorial Day.

Major League Baseball has one of these assholes.  He makes more money than almost everyone, he plays for the most famous team in the league and if April is the morning of the baseball season this jerk-off is showing up at 9am with bed-head.  His name is Mark Teixeira. 

Tex is pulling his annual sleeping beauty act in the month of April, perhaps his deepest slumber of them all.  To date the big fella has 3 hits, all of them in the same game.  His average is a sickle cell .111 and he hasn’t sniffed a homer.  The bat looks slow and rumors are swirling that he may not be in peak physical condition.  The slow starts are nothing new for Tex.  He’s a career .243 hitter in April and has only hit more than 3 homers twice in his seven year career.  The RBI’s don’t come either.  In seven seasons his has 74 RBI’s, just a smidge over 10 a month.  These are not the numbers befitting a man getting paid 8 figures a season. 

It’s time we get the reason for my frustrations out on the table.  You are not reading a blog by an obnoxious Yankee die-hard who is searching to bitch about something six months after racking up title number 27.  You are talking to somebody even less rational about his struggles.  You are talking to a fantasy owner. 

Tex’s April struggles are nothing new to me.  I spent a late round flier back in the 2005 draft and have reaped the rewards every year since.  The last couple of seasons – starting with the 13 homers through July bit in 2007 – have left me lukewarm about my guy.  My keeper league is a standard 10 category head to head league, a format I’m beginning to re-think my draft strategy in.  Baseball is full of streak guys, none bigger than Tex.  His sleep for month, crush it for two weeks and end up with great numbers bit is better served in a rotisserie style league where the stats are cumulative.  In a head to head he’s leaving you hanging more than leading you to victory.  It’s starting again this year.  Last week I lost by two homers and got blown out in batting average.  This week I’m down a couple of homers and RBI’s.  Will my number one slugger carry me over the top or continue to play dead?

Like my collarless buddy with sleep creases on his face, Tex doesn’t seem to alter his approach to improve his performance.  Figure it out!  Hit more balls, see a hypnotist, do something to prepare yourself to excel WHEN THE SEASON STARTS!!   Be a pro.

No doubt this slow start will be a distant memory on August 15th when Tex hits homer number 30 and an even more distant memory when I’m drooling over his final stat line come March of next season when it’s time to turn in keepers.  I just can’t quit him.  He’s fantasy napalm. 

(Dear DU Drinking League members:  Consider this my official request to move to a daily transaction rotisserie format.  Thank you for your time.)

Off the booze and entering his prime.

Fantasy baseball is a living entity, like that planet from the 3D version of Dances With Smurfs. You’ve got to tap in to the preseason projections and find out what has changed this year or you’ll be stuck using outdated strategies. Don’t get caught bringing a knife to a gun fight.

20/20 Players – There seems to be more players this year than ever with 20 homer power and 20 steal potential. What does that mean? The days of overvaluing these one category wonders are up. I’m looking at you Podsednik, Bourn, and Pierre. Draft a team full of 20 steal potential guys and you’ll be much more consistent over the year.

Shortstops – This position looks like the zombie apocalypse if you’re in an AL only draft this year. If you don’t get one of the studs early I’d suggest drafting a couple of the iffy guys and hopefully you’ll hit.

Corner Infield Power – If I’m looking towards the corner infield slots to give me my power, which I should be, then grab some early. Power becomes pretty iffy or comes with some negatives after the top 5 rounds.

We put it all in the computer and here are our first impressions of the stat values for 2010. Download the spreadsheet version here.

He did a little bit more than just read 2 poker books and put on sunglasses.

Then Texas Hold’em stormed it’s way into poker nights around the country. Dealer call it poker nights became $20 buy in tournaments with the losers fetching beer and watching porn until somebody won. Back then most people were still playing this new game like it was 5 card draw, specifically tossing chips into the middle with almost any 2 cards. The only strategy you needed to be a “good” player in these fields was a 80% fold rate.

But flash forward over 10 years and the games have tightened up. There are a ton of poker resources online and in dead tree form at Barnes and Noble. Most of the guys in your poker night have now played online, gotten their ass kicked, and decided to learn how to play the game a little. This does not mean that you’re staring at Phil Ivey across that home made felt cover to your dining room table, but it does force you to up your game. For instance, you now may have to learn how to properly play your position to gain that advantage.

It’s called the evolutionary arms race that Darwin wrote about and it takes place in any competitive system.

You gotta stay ahead of the prey, or you're gonna end up with that ACME anvil upside your own head.

The same thing is currently happening in your fantasy league. There are hundreds of resources where your competition is getting fantasy advice. You’ve seen the cheat sheets on draft day becoming more sophisticated and your opponents start spewing “conventional wisdom” like “draft running backs in the first two rounds”.

But the thing about “conventional wisdom” is that by the time it becomes conventional you better be figuring out ways to adjust away from them. You always need to zig when they zag. Stay a couple steps ahead of the pack. Predator and not the prey.

Many experts have been quietly suggesting for a few years now that the 2 running back strategy had run it’s course. Part of this is due to the viral popularity of the dreaded running back by committee, but it’s also because your entire league is following the same “wisdom”. It just doesn’t work anymore. Now there are still enough solid fundamentals behind it that you don’t scrap it completely, but you should already be tweaking the first couple rounds on your cheat sheet with some “Best Player Available”.

Every fifth day he gives us a reason to pay attention to the Royals.

And this finally gets us around to pitchers. Conventional wisdom has been giving them a bad rap lately. It says to draft the more dependable hitters first, fill in your roster with Low Investment Mound Aces (LIMA) later, never pay for saves, etc. Matt Berry’s take over at ESPN fantasy is a large reason that these strategies are getting more penetration lately. Enough years of seeing them in the Draft Day Manifesto and even the slower players in your league are starting to catch on.

So what does this mean? Well, you have to stay flexible. These strategies have some solid background but if you start to see more people on draft day following them, be prepared to zig. Grab Papelbon at $9 at that mixed auction if everybody else in your league is sitting on their hands not paying for saves. Don’t be afraid to grab a Greinke in the late 3rd round if everybody else is taking a pass on the Royals stud.

There seems to be some depth this year at a lot of offensive stat categories, so don’t be afraid to go after that ace at the right price. Just make sure you’re staying a couple steps ahead of the pack.

Download the data here!

Player Rater Projections