Guess who's back. Back again. Bowe's back. Tell a friend.

NFL picks went 6-4 for +7.20 units in the last 14 days.  Really glad I didn’t go with my gut and post a Saints pick for tonight’s embarrassment.  All lines and odds published are from matchbook.com and current as of the time of writing.  Home teams are capitalized.

KANSAS CITY -2 over Cleveland -113  (1 unit)

Green Bay +2 over PITTSBURGH +108  (3 units)

TENNESSEE -4.5 over Miami -111  (1 unit)

PHILADELPHIA -7.5 over San Francisco +109  (2 units)

SEATTLE -6.5 over Tampa Bay -106  (1 unit)

Atlanta +6 over NEW YORK JETS -102  (3 units)

Minnesota -7.5 over CAROLINA -107  (1 unit)

Mendenhall should see some more wide open lanes tonight.

It’s cold and snowy in Cleveland so the public is pounding Cleveland keep it close in a low scoring game.  I feel like going opposite.

Cleveland ranks dead last in the league in giving up yards and has given up 27 or more points this season 8 out of their 12 games.  So now I’m only counting on the Browns to come through for less than a touchdown.  I’ll take that.

Pittsburgh has something to prove and they don’t plan on going onto almost national television to lose their 5th straight.  5 out of their 6 wins are by 8 or more points.  I like them to cover, but I’m only laying 1 unit on it due to the weather.

OVER 33 Pittsburgh at Cleveland +101  (3 units)

Pittsburgh -10 over CLEVELAND +107  (1 unit)

Striking that Heismann pose for the top of your league trophy

Jerome Harrison RB CLE

Jamal Lewis has decided to call it a career opening the door for Jerome Harrison to take over the duties.  He has good hands and is a must add in most leagues especially if you are playing in a point per reception league.  This week isn’t a great matchup with the Steelers, but after that it’s very, very advantageous and Jerome will make a great flex start.

Chris Brown RB HOU

The Texans just made it official and put Steve Slaton on the IR with a spinal cord injury.  Chris Brown got the start last week, but didn’t do much with it.  He should get more comfortable with the Moats platoon and should get the better part of it.  If Brown is still out on the wire, smack that bitch up.

Davone Bess WR MIA

Chad Henne has decided to gain a pulse and the Dolphins offense is going with it.  He threw 52 times last week and 10 of those receptions went to Bess.  He’ll be a popular pickup this week and could be worth a flex start in the playoffs.

Jason Campbell QB WAS

For those Peyton Manning owners, you better start planning for the future.  Normally with Manning I don’t even carry a second QB after the bye week but he’s going to start getting some bench time any day soon.  Jason Campbell is a good pickup if you have nobody else out there for ya.

You heard me, the Bengals are the lock of the week.

Lock of the Week:

Cincinnati over Detroit:  If you were slow to the party on the Bengals, like I was and still have them available, it’s time to pull the trigger.  Don’t be scared away by the loss at Oakland followed by the sluggish performance against the Browns last week.  Nobody tries very hard against the Browns.  CedBen is back this week.  Expect the Bengals to roll.

Strong Plays:

Pittsburgh over Oakland:  This is pending Big Ben plays of course.  A Dennis Dixon led Steelers could still win but you may have to sweat out a 17-13 nailbiter.  The Raiders offense is slightly better with Gradkowski at the controls than with Jamarcus.  If you forced yourself to watch the Tryptophan Bowl on Thanksgiving you know that difference is negligible.  It’s kind of like saying you prefer Newark over Detroit.

San Diego over Cleveland:  I’m guessing most of you have used the Chargers by now but if you haven’t the going has never been better.  This just in, the Browns are bad.

New Orleans over Washington:  The Saints are not going to go 16-0.  I just don’t believe it.  I’m not saying they aren’t a great team or a Super Bowl contender, I just think they will drop one at some point.  This has the potential to be a big let down game after the thrashing of the Pats.  They probably win but they may make you sweat.

Caution:

Chicago over St. Louis:  This is a completely unwatchable game and reason number 1346 that I’m excited to have the Red Zone Network.  The players on each team don’t even care at this point.  For those of you out there who think any of the following A) The Bears have a good defense B) good running game or C) good quarterback and therefore should have an easy victory on Sunday, I’m here to tell you the following.  The Bears don’t do anything well.  They are one of the worst 8 teams in pro football.  They have surrendered on all fronts.  I know it seems inconceivable that the Rams could win a road game but they could win Sunday.  BEWARE!!!

Denver over Kansas City:  Kansas City has been frisky at home and are developing a running game with Jamaal Charles.  I don’t trust Kyle Orton on the road especially if the Broncos fall behind.

Carolina over Tampa Bay:  This game is not in the caution category due to the fact that Jake Delhomme is “injured” (seems like a crock, polite benching perhaps?).  I’m of the opinion that could only help the Panthers.  They fall in the caution category as homerun hitter DeAngelo Williams will be a game time decision with a sore ankle.  If word comes the Williams will be able to play you can use Carolina safely.

Balls of Steel:

Philly over Atlanta:  This is not an endorsement of Philly, they are a poorly coached mess.  However, if Matty Ice and Michael Turner don’t play it could turn the tide for the Eagles.  Philly is on the road, so even with both Atlanta stars out this falls as a Balls of Steel pick.

Avoid like a 9-iron to your Escalade:

Jacksonville vs. Houston, Dallas vs. NYG, Seattle vs. San Francisco, Arizona vs. Minnesota (strong play if Leinart starts), Green Bay vs. Baltimore, Miami vs. New England, Indy vs. Tennessee

Jared Allen will make Orlando Pace a human turnstile on Sunday afternoon.

Survivor Poolers have been waiting for a week like last one all season.  The week to clear the flotsam and narrow the leagues down to the final stretch.  Injuries played large roles in the losses for both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh but it’s hard to believe that either team would have lost had they been at home.  Let this be a lesson to stick with home teams whenever possible in Survivor Pool play.  Without point spreads home field still counts. 

There are way too many easy games this week.  Pick strategically to save the best matchups for later. 

Locks:

Dallas over Oakland:  The Cowboys offense has stalled that last two weeks.  I’m not concerned this week.  The Cowboys have lit up three straight turkey day opponents and Bruce Gradkowski on the road doesn’t inspire the least bit of fear from me.  The Cowboys get back on track and win going away to cap off the most boring afternoon of football ever.  I hope you are drunk by the time this game kicks off.

Green Bay over Detroit:  Just look at what Brady Quinn did to the Lions last week.  Aaron Rodgers should throw for 8 TD’s in this game.  Fears about injuries to the Green Bay defense should be lessened by word that Matt Stafford will most likely miss the game with a separated shoulder and Calvin Johnson is questionable.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay:  The Bucs recent spasm of competence seems to have been short lived after getting flogged by the Saints last week.  Coach Raheem Morris responded by firing his defensive coordinator making him probably the only coach ever to fire both of his coordinators during a season.  Throw in the fact that Morris is a first year coach and you have a completely dysfunctional organization on your hands.  Jason Snelling filled in admirably for Michael Turner last week and Matty Ice had his best game in a month.  Take the Dirty Birds if you haven’t already.  

Cincinnati over Cleveland:  Benson is back, the Bengals are pissed, and the Browns offense blew their load last week.  This one should be ugly.  The only reason not to use the Bengals this week is if you are saving them for next week and a home game against the Lions. 

Minnesota over Chicago:  The Bears are a complete mess.  Their best player may be kicker Robbie Gould.  The Vikings present a matchup that is a nightmare for the Bears.  If Jay Cutler isn’t in a wheelchair by the end of the game it should be considered a victory.  The Vikes win 35-10. 

San Diego over Kansas City:  The Chiefs still aren’t good and this version of the Chargers doesn’t seem to play down to it’s competition like recent versions.  This feels like a safe play this week.  The Chargers play at Cleveland next week if you have the luxury of saving them. 

Caution:

Philadelphia over Washington:  The Bears are not good but had the ball with a chance to win on Sunday night despite Jay Cutler looking like an unholy hybrid of all Rex Grossman and Johnathon Quinn.  This Eagles are average and no better.  They should beat the Redskins but there are better options this week. 

Balls of Steel:

Miami over Buffalo:  The Dolphins are better team as evidenced by their 38-10 heavy sack beating of the Bills in Miami in Week 3, but I don’t trust the Dolphins in a Week 12 road game.  Tony Sparano is a terrible game coach.  This was in full view on Thursday night against the Panthers and a couple of weeks earlier against the Jets when they went for 2 in a situation that could have cost them.  The Bills showed a little more life in the first week without Deadwood Dick Jauron and even managed to get Terrell Owens prominently involved.  The Bills offense was better earlier in the year with Fred Jackson as the feature back and it looks like he will be back in that role this week as Marshawn Lynch may miss the game.  Miami should win but you would need Balls of Steel to take them now. 

Avoid like canned Cranberry Sauce:

NY Giants at Denver, Seattle at St. Louis, Carolina at NY Jets, Indy at Houston, Jacksonville at SF, Arizona at Tennessee, Pittsburgh at Baltimore, New England at New Orleans

Can the Falcons run the ball without the Burner? God I hope so.

Colts -1 over Ravens -102  (4 units)

I really think everyone is over analyzing this one.  Sure, some lines stink like traps.  But do you really think that Vegas is going to put that line out to lure the public into betting EVEN MORE money on an undefeated team to beat a 5-4 squad?  Sometimes you just have to take the pity lay from your ex-girlfriend.

49ers +6.5 over Green Bay -106  (4 units)

San Francisco is 3-0-1 against the spread as road underdogs.  They have played all their games close except the one 35 point blowout.  Green Bay seems to be in safe mode on offense and have liked protecting the ball and letting their defense carry some weight.  All the signs are pointing towards a close game, so I’m betting on it.

Falcons over Giants ML +298  (2 units)

The Falcons may have lost Michael Turner, but this line seems like a pretty big over reaction to me.  It’s not like the Giants have been setting the world on fire during their 4 game losing streak.  If the Falcons can get anything going on the ground against the questionable New York defense then they have a chance to win this game.  Definitely better than the 25% chance that this line is giving them.

Lions -3.5 over Browns +107  (2 units)

I’m continuing my streak of betting on some of the worst games in football.  We don’t need to watch the games to gamble on them, right?  The Browns looked like a bad high school squad on Monday night and I have no reason to believe that they will improve.  The Lions at least have shown some glimpses of hope this year on their way to 1-8.

Eagles -3 over Bears -104  (2 units)

The Bears are not good.

All lines are current odds on matchbook.com as of the time of this article.

Get your knowledge on.

It’s Week 11 and the pickins are starting to get slim.  It’s time to look ahead to the end of the season and start picking strategically.  Remember, you don’t want to have a slew of division leaders in the final weeks as they rest players and prepare for the playoffs. 

Locks:

Arizona over St. Louis:  The trends here are hard to deny.  The Cardinals are 4-0 on the road and the Rams are bad no matter where they play.  I get a wee bit queasy picking the Cardinals in these pools.  They don’t always show up, especially against lesser teams.  Don’t worry about it this week.  Take Warner in his triumphant return to St. Louis.

New England over New York Jets:  The suddenly swaggerless Jets travel to Foxborough to face a pissed off Patriots team.  The Pats are smarting from last weeks Colts mess and are no doubt looking for payback for the smack talking win the Jets had in Week 2.  If you don’t think Belichick and co win this one in a big way, you haven’t been paying attention this past decade. 

Minnesota over Seattle:  The Vikes at home are a juggernaut.  Peterson will run wild, Favre will hop around like a little kid, and Jared Allen will put Matt Hasselbeck’s health in jeopardy.  If you haven’t used the Vikes yet, you are going to want to do it before they wrap up the North and start resting players.  The Bears next week is another great opportunity. 

Caution:

Cincinnati over Oakland:  Be careful with this one.  Oakland can really ugly up the game in their home stadium and have pulled a big upset on their home field.  The Bengals most consistent weapon Cedric Benson is most likely out for the game.  The Bengals are a legit team but save them if you can for home dates against the Browns and Lions in the next two weeks. 

Dallas over Washington:  The Cowboys should bounce back and win over the Redskins.  They are on the caution list due to the fact this is a rivalry game and because the Cowboys play the punchless Raiders on Thanksgiving.  Save the Cowboys for Turkey Day, no way they will lose that one.

Indy over Baltimore:  Indy will lose at some point this season.  They have a tough road game following their emotional comeback win over the Pats?  On paper, it could very well be this week.  See barcalounger’s wagers on Sunday.  I’m guessing he will like the Ravens in this one. 

New Orleans over Tampa Bay:  The Bucs are suddenly frisky with Josh Freeman at quarterback and the Saints seem to have hit the midseason doldrums.  Hopefully you have used the Saints before now.  They are going to torture survivor leaguers the rest of the season. 

Balls of Steel:

Jacksonville over Buffalo:  This is a decent play, I just don’t have the intestinal fortitude to try it.  The Jags are playing much better and the Bills are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Sometimes a team will rally for it’s recently deposed coach, but I can’t imagine anyone would work up much emotion about Dick Jauron. 

Detroit over Cleveland:  Detroit is a better team but I wouldn’t bet my survivor life on it.  If the over/under was 9.5 I would strongly consider the under.  If you watch this game you should see a therapist.

If Quinn throws another pick I will be crying too.

I have watched nearly every play of tonight’s Browns/Ravens MNF televised sleeping pill.  As I sit here entering hour three of this self-imposed hell,  I find that I am grasping for reasons why.  Is it because I’m a Browns diehard?  No.  Is it because I’m a degenerate gambler who is titillated by gambling on NFL unders?  Unfortunately not.  Is it because I’m a masochist who enjoys the pain that only watching the Browns offense can provide?  I don’t think so.  Could it be that my 1st place fantasy team is clinging to a 29 point lead that is currently under siege from the Ravens defense?  Bingo.

It’s been said that fantasy football can make any game watchable if you have players involved.  This game is certainly the test case.  There have been roughly three good plays.  A decent to good Ravens team appears content to play down to the level of the Browns, who I will go on record as saying have the worst offense that I have ever seen in the NFL.  (I watched the 2004 Bears season.  I feel this qualifies me to comment.)  I don’t care.  I’m hanging on every play as if it matters even though no single game has probably mattered less.   I think the 300 people left in Cleveland Browns stadium agree with that statement.

My lead is down to 6 points and the Ravens offense is punting it back to the Browns.   Any chance they will take a knee?

The NBA - It's Turd-tastic!

What a turd of a Monday Night Football game.  I’m actually considering watching one of the wife’s shows on the DVR instead.  Gotta put some action down because I can’t handle watching crap like Bones.  I’m so desperate I’m even testing the waters by putting down my first NBA bet of the year.

Baltimore -10.5 over Cleveland +101  (4 units)

BAL / CLE over 38.5 -105  (2 units)

Atlanta Hawks -3.5 over Portland Blazers -105  (1 unit)