Somebody's about to get fucked up.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Defense and special teams are actually a very large part of post season fantasy. That’s because they usually have pretty consistent scoring, so the 4 game run of a #5 seed is immensely helpful. I think last year my best player overall on one of my squads ended up being the Arizona defense. Not only does that factoid illustrate my point, but it also points out how bad the rest of my team probably was.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Eight Five is hobbled but not forgotten.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Wide receivers, the original boom or bust proposition. No matter how much running backs angle to take that title away. Every post season you’ll see some of the big names get knocked out early going out with a whimper. There will be one no-name guy who goes all the way and becomes the savior of somebody’s team. And there will be the guy who just goes off even if he only lasts one game.

The key to wide receivers? Not sure. I’d just try to luck into getting one of each.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

It's uncomfortable for everyone when you send a team mate into a post game rape shower.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Kickers simply don’t matter. Good ones are only marginally better than the bad ones. The best kickers in playoff fantasy will end up being whoever is in the Super Bowl. So if you are really, really, really good at picking who will end up in the Super Bowl, then what are you doing wasting time with this nickel and dime fantasy shit? Start plopping some real dough down on the futures betting market.

*Updated – Matt Stover moved up to Adam Viniateri’s slot.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Even just one game with Gates is probably better than 3 with the guys at the bottom of this list.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

A lot of postseason fantasy drafts will forgo the TE position and just throw it in with a WR/TE flex. In those leagues the tight end position is obviously minimized to the point of only 6 maybe 7 of these guys being draft worthy. Clark and Gates are a definite cut above the rest, with the second tier ending with Celek. After that it’s even more of a crap shoot than what you normally expect.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

I'm diving head first into this Packer. That may have came out wrong.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

One common rookie mistake in a postseason draft is to overrate the top seeds. NFL parity has created a playoff system where somebody who plays on Wild Card weekend always seems to find their way into the Super Bowl. If you have players from that lucky team then you have a chance at 4 games with your stud, while the ceiling on Peyton Manning is 3 games. Don’t be afraid to take a flyer on a stud from a 6 seed.

It was a really weird year for running backs in the fantasy season. The NFL is now a passing heavy league where the dreaded running back by committee is becoming the rule instead of the exception. While a RB is still important, I still think that drafting 1-2 stud quarterbacks are more important to winning. In whatever order, I’m still looking at targetting a RB and QB in the first two rounds in which ever order.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

If only Flacco could light up the Bears every week.

I never understood why fantasy football has to end with the regular season. If the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

In some ways playoff drafts can be more interesting than the regular season since the number of games a team plays becomes a huge factor in who to draft. Huge. Take it from somebody who got dominated last year by a team including Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Santonio Holmes.

What does every playoff team except two have in common? Good to great quarterback play. The Jets and Ravens are the lone exceptions with rookie Sanchez and sophomore Flacco just playing the role of game managers. Every other team has a real man behind center that can take the entire team on his shoulders and carry them to victory. We’re seeing a golden age of good QBs in the NFL right now and there are a lot of future hall of famers in this playoff group.

So don’t miss out at QB in your draft. If you have a flex where you can start 2 of them, then do it. That gives you license to take a flyer early on a McNabb and hope the Eagles get hot at the right time to the tune of 4 games. If the parity era of the NFL has taught us anything it’s that there’s a very good chance a 5 or 6 seed will make it to the conference championship and into the Super Bowl.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Talented team trumps big scoreboard.

Green Bay -3.5 over CHICAGO +103  (3 units)

This line stinks like a “trap” but I’m picking up on it anyway.  Believing in traps is for suckers.  Green Bay is better at every facet of the game and the Bears will be without their number one receiver Devin Hester which is an even bigger negative than the usual “their number one receiver is somehow Devin Hester”.

Philadelphia +1 over NEW YORK GIANTS -110  (2 units)

OVER 43.5 Philadelphia at New York Giants +105  (1 unit)

Philly has the better offense and defense and the only reason this line is down this far is that Philly is on the road and they’ve been unpredictable on which team will show up.  I’m betting that both offenses show up and this game ends up somewhere around 27-24.

San Diego +3 over DALLAS +108  (2 units)

I’ll take the chargers as a dog over the overrated Cowboys any day of the week.  Twice on Sundays.

You heard me, the Bengals are the lock of the week.

Lock of the Week:

Cincinnati over Detroit:  If you were slow to the party on the Bengals, like I was and still have them available, it’s time to pull the trigger.  Don’t be scared away by the loss at Oakland followed by the sluggish performance against the Browns last week.  Nobody tries very hard against the Browns.  CedBen is back this week.  Expect the Bengals to roll.

Strong Plays:

Pittsburgh over Oakland:  This is pending Big Ben plays of course.  A Dennis Dixon led Steelers could still win but you may have to sweat out a 17-13 nailbiter.  The Raiders offense is slightly better with Gradkowski at the controls than with Jamarcus.  If you forced yourself to watch the Tryptophan Bowl on Thanksgiving you know that difference is negligible.  It’s kind of like saying you prefer Newark over Detroit.

San Diego over Cleveland:  I’m guessing most of you have used the Chargers by now but if you haven’t the going has never been better.  This just in, the Browns are bad.

New Orleans over Washington:  The Saints are not going to go 16-0.  I just don’t believe it.  I’m not saying they aren’t a great team or a Super Bowl contender, I just think they will drop one at some point.  This has the potential to be a big let down game after the thrashing of the Pats.  They probably win but they may make you sweat.

Caution:

Chicago over St. Louis:  This is a completely unwatchable game and reason number 1346 that I’m excited to have the Red Zone Network.  The players on each team don’t even care at this point.  For those of you out there who think any of the following A) The Bears have a good defense B) good running game or C) good quarterback and therefore should have an easy victory on Sunday, I’m here to tell you the following.  The Bears don’t do anything well.  They are one of the worst 8 teams in pro football.  They have surrendered on all fronts.  I know it seems inconceivable that the Rams could win a road game but they could win Sunday.  BEWARE!!!

Denver over Kansas City:  Kansas City has been frisky at home and are developing a running game with Jamaal Charles.  I don’t trust Kyle Orton on the road especially if the Broncos fall behind.

Carolina over Tampa Bay:  This game is not in the caution category due to the fact that Jake Delhomme is “injured” (seems like a crock, polite benching perhaps?).  I’m of the opinion that could only help the Panthers.  They fall in the caution category as homerun hitter DeAngelo Williams will be a game time decision with a sore ankle.  If word comes the Williams will be able to play you can use Carolina safely.

Balls of Steel:

Philly over Atlanta:  This is not an endorsement of Philly, they are a poorly coached mess.  However, if Matty Ice and Michael Turner don’t play it could turn the tide for the Eagles.  Philly is on the road, so even with both Atlanta stars out this falls as a Balls of Steel pick.

Avoid like a 9-iron to your Escalade:

Jacksonville vs. Houston, Dallas vs. NYG, Seattle vs. San Francisco, Arizona vs. Minnesota (strong play if Leinart starts), Green Bay vs. Baltimore, Miami vs. New England, Indy vs. Tennessee

Jared Allen will make Orlando Pace a human turnstile on Sunday afternoon.

Survivor Poolers have been waiting for a week like last one all season.  The week to clear the flotsam and narrow the leagues down to the final stretch.  Injuries played large roles in the losses for both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh but it’s hard to believe that either team would have lost had they been at home.  Let this be a lesson to stick with home teams whenever possible in Survivor Pool play.  Without point spreads home field still counts. 

There are way too many easy games this week.  Pick strategically to save the best matchups for later. 

Locks:

Dallas over Oakland:  The Cowboys offense has stalled that last two weeks.  I’m not concerned this week.  The Cowboys have lit up three straight turkey day opponents and Bruce Gradkowski on the road doesn’t inspire the least bit of fear from me.  The Cowboys get back on track and win going away to cap off the most boring afternoon of football ever.  I hope you are drunk by the time this game kicks off.

Green Bay over Detroit:  Just look at what Brady Quinn did to the Lions last week.  Aaron Rodgers should throw for 8 TD’s in this game.  Fears about injuries to the Green Bay defense should be lessened by word that Matt Stafford will most likely miss the game with a separated shoulder and Calvin Johnson is questionable.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay:  The Bucs recent spasm of competence seems to have been short lived after getting flogged by the Saints last week.  Coach Raheem Morris responded by firing his defensive coordinator making him probably the only coach ever to fire both of his coordinators during a season.  Throw in the fact that Morris is a first year coach and you have a completely dysfunctional organization on your hands.  Jason Snelling filled in admirably for Michael Turner last week and Matty Ice had his best game in a month.  Take the Dirty Birds if you haven’t already.  

Cincinnati over Cleveland:  Benson is back, the Bengals are pissed, and the Browns offense blew their load last week.  This one should be ugly.  The only reason not to use the Bengals this week is if you are saving them for next week and a home game against the Lions. 

Minnesota over Chicago:  The Bears are a complete mess.  Their best player may be kicker Robbie Gould.  The Vikings present a matchup that is a nightmare for the Bears.  If Jay Cutler isn’t in a wheelchair by the end of the game it should be considered a victory.  The Vikes win 35-10. 

San Diego over Kansas City:  The Chiefs still aren’t good and this version of the Chargers doesn’t seem to play down to it’s competition like recent versions.  This feels like a safe play this week.  The Chargers play at Cleveland next week if you have the luxury of saving them. 

Caution:

Philadelphia over Washington:  The Bears are not good but had the ball with a chance to win on Sunday night despite Jay Cutler looking like an unholy hybrid of all Rex Grossman and Johnathon Quinn.  This Eagles are average and no better.  They should beat the Redskins but there are better options this week. 

Balls of Steel:

Miami over Buffalo:  The Dolphins are better team as evidenced by their 38-10 heavy sack beating of the Bills in Miami in Week 3, but I don’t trust the Dolphins in a Week 12 road game.  Tony Sparano is a terrible game coach.  This was in full view on Thursday night against the Panthers and a couple of weeks earlier against the Jets when they went for 2 in a situation that could have cost them.  The Bills showed a little more life in the first week without Deadwood Dick Jauron and even managed to get Terrell Owens prominently involved.  The Bills offense was better earlier in the year with Fred Jackson as the feature back and it looks like he will be back in that role this week as Marshawn Lynch may miss the game.  Miami should win but you would need Balls of Steel to take them now. 

Avoid like canned Cranberry Sauce:

NY Giants at Denver, Seattle at St. Louis, Carolina at NY Jets, Indy at Houston, Jacksonville at SF, Arizona at Tennessee, Pittsburgh at Baltimore, New England at New Orleans