I may have been drinking a little too much last night, thank you Evan Williams and Squirt, but the Colts offense was very Chicago Bears like last night.  Conservative play calling, shoddy defense, and bad wide receivers.

How does Jim Caldwell concede the first half by trying to run out the clock and give the Saints another 3 points and confidence going into the locker room?  Did you seem to notice that the guy on the opposite side lines is going for it on 4th down, onside kicking it, and coaching straight from his nut sack?

Rewind a few hours and one of the best tidbits gleamed from the 28 hours of pregame nuttiness was that Sean Payton, while drinking last January, agreed to pony up $250,000 of his personal money to bridge the contract gap and sign defensive coordinator Gregg Williams as a fresh new voice for the team.  Good decision.  This guy is getting an entry right next to Bruce Campbell in my cool book.  A very un-Bears thing to do.

The best receiver in the game, Reggie Wayne, looked average at best last night.  It’s kind of like watching one of your favorite bands of all time show up 40 years older to play the Super Bowl halftime like a wrinkled karaoke version of themselves.

If Pierre Thomas would have gotten one of those late touchdowns he might have pulled down that MVP hardware.  Bookmakers put that at +800 ish before the game, could have been a big payday for some degenerates in Vegas.

Drew Brees is now in the Hall of Fame discussion.  With those big stats the last couple years and now a first ever Super Bowl for New Orleans, he’s building a bullet proof case.

So now everything football related is going to be retarded shouts of “Who Dat?” and fake creole accents.  Ugh.

Nine days until pitchers and catchers report.

Pretty much sums it up.

Somebody's about to get fucked up.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Defense and special teams are actually a very large part of post season fantasy. That’s because they usually have pretty consistent scoring, so the 4 game run of a #5 seed is immensely helpful. I think last year my best player overall on one of my squads ended up being the Arizona defense. Not only does that factoid illustrate my point, but it also points out how bad the rest of my team probably was.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Eight Five is hobbled but not forgotten.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Wide receivers, the original boom or bust proposition. No matter how much running backs angle to take that title away. Every post season you’ll see some of the big names get knocked out early going out with a whimper. There will be one no-name guy who goes all the way and becomes the savior of somebody’s team. And there will be the guy who just goes off even if he only lasts one game.

The key to wide receivers? Not sure. I’d just try to luck into getting one of each.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

It's uncomfortable for everyone when you send a team mate into a post game rape shower.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

Kickers simply don’t matter. Good ones are only marginally better than the bad ones. The best kickers in playoff fantasy will end up being whoever is in the Super Bowl. So if you are really, really, really good at picking who will end up in the Super Bowl, then what are you doing wasting time with this nickel and dime fantasy shit? Start plopping some real dough down on the futures betting market.

*Updated – Matt Stover moved up to Adam Viniateri’s slot.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Even just one game with Gates is probably better than 3 with the guys at the bottom of this list.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

A lot of postseason fantasy drafts will forgo the TE position and just throw it in with a WR/TE flex. In those leagues the tight end position is obviously minimized to the point of only 6 maybe 7 of these guys being draft worthy. Clark and Gates are a definite cut above the rest, with the second tier ending with Celek. After that it’s even more of a crap shoot than what you normally expect.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

I'm diving head first into this Packer. That may have came out wrong.

If you are anything like me, then you’re preparing for your postseason NFL draft right now. When the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

One common rookie mistake in a postseason draft is to overrate the top seeds. NFL parity has created a playoff system where somebody who plays on Wild Card weekend always seems to find their way into the Super Bowl. If you have players from that lucky team then you have a chance at 4 games with your stud, while the ceiling on Peyton Manning is 3 games. Don’t be afraid to take a flyer on a stud from a 6 seed.

It was a really weird year for running backs in the fantasy season. The NFL is now a passing heavy league where the dreaded running back by committee is becoming the rule instead of the exception. While a RB is still important, I still think that drafting 1-2 stud quarterbacks are more important to winning. In whatever order, I’m still looking at targetting a RB and QB in the first two rounds in which ever order.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

If only Flacco could light up the Bears every week.

I never understood why fantasy football has to end with the regular season. If the NFL is putting out live games then I have a physical need to field a list of players and compare them to the list of players somebody else came up with and hopefully win some scratch. That’s just simple logic.

In some ways playoff drafts can be more interesting than the regular season since the number of games a team plays becomes a huge factor in who to draft. Huge. Take it from somebody who got dominated last year by a team including Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Santonio Holmes.

What does every playoff team except two have in common? Good to great quarterback play. The Jets and Ravens are the lone exceptions with rookie Sanchez and sophomore Flacco just playing the role of game managers. Every other team has a real man behind center that can take the entire team on his shoulders and carry them to victory. We’re seeing a golden age of good QBs in the NFL right now and there are a lot of future hall of famers in this playoff group.

So don’t miss out at QB in your draft. If you have a flex where you can start 2 of them, then do it. That gives you license to take a flyer early on a McNabb and hope the Eagles get hot at the right time to the tune of 4 games. If the parity era of the NFL has taught us anything it’s that there’s a very good chance a 5 or 6 seed will make it to the conference championship and into the Super Bowl.

QB – RB – WR – TE – K – DEF

Can the Falcons run the ball without the Burner? God I hope so.

Colts -1 over Ravens -102  (4 units)

I really think everyone is over analyzing this one.  Sure, some lines stink like traps.  But do you really think that Vegas is going to put that line out to lure the public into betting EVEN MORE money on an undefeated team to beat a 5-4 squad?  Sometimes you just have to take the pity lay from your ex-girlfriend.

49ers +6.5 over Green Bay -106  (4 units)

San Francisco is 3-0-1 against the spread as road underdogs.  They have played all their games close except the one 35 point blowout.  Green Bay seems to be in safe mode on offense and have liked protecting the ball and letting their defense carry some weight.  All the signs are pointing towards a close game, so I’m betting on it.

Falcons over Giants ML +298  (2 units)

The Falcons may have lost Michael Turner, but this line seems like a pretty big over reaction to me.  It’s not like the Giants have been setting the world on fire during their 4 game losing streak.  If the Falcons can get anything going on the ground against the questionable New York defense then they have a chance to win this game.  Definitely better than the 25% chance that this line is giving them.

Lions -3.5 over Browns +107  (2 units)

I’m continuing my streak of betting on some of the worst games in football.  We don’t need to watch the games to gamble on them, right?  The Browns looked like a bad high school squad on Monday night and I have no reason to believe that they will improve.  The Lions at least have shown some glimpses of hope this year on their way to 1-8.

Eagles -3 over Bears -104  (2 units)

The Bears are not good.

All lines are current odds on matchbook.com as of the time of this article.

Like I'm expected to keep up with all that math.

But this new article where he tries to delve into the Patriots 4th down and 2 statistics is just embarrassing for everyone involved. His grasp on the basic tenets of logic is funny bad.  The level of undeserved hubris on display is something I would only expect to read in Sarah Palin’s new book “Going Rogue”.  The thought of a million readers all nodding their head in agreement with the babbling thoughts in this article just because they happen to be on ESPN really irks me.

In baseball, statistics permeate every aspect of the game. And they should. It’s an individual sport. You are on your own.

Great, a seemingly nonsensical assertion that stats are only important in an individual sport.  Off to a good start.  At least I know he’s going to spend the next paragraph explaining why the importance of stats is somehow linearly related to the amount of individuality on display.  Oh wait, he didn’t?  He just kind of moves on?  Darn, was looking forward to that.

Now, it’s not even arguable that baseball is a stat driven sport.  Of course it is.  But I think this is probably a factor of A) the limited amount of definitive situations the game can be in and B) 162 games per year over 100 years and intense stats compilations starting back in the ’30s.  Not some weird level of individual-ness.

But you still need to watch games to have an educated opinion. After my beloved Patriots threw away Sunday’s Colts game with one unnecessarily dangerous decision, my educated opinion was this: “That’s the second dumbest thing I have ever seen any Boston team do.”

Super, an appeal to authority fallacy.  Bill Simmons knows more about football than me, you, or the facts when put together in numerical form.  It’s comforting to know that he is so much better at watching sports than we are.

To be clear, let me say that I don’t think Belichick made some awesome genius call.  All the facts available say it was likely at best a good call and at worst a push.  Neither do I think Cutoff Hoodie McDouche knew all the math was supporting him when making that call.  He probably just knew that it was a good option, which it most definitely was, and made the controversial decision just like he’s known to do.  I call it “Going Rogue” then look up some of those fake photoshopped pics of Sarah Palin again.

But to call it the “second dumbest thing I have ever seen any Boston team do”?  Really?  Let me guess, it’s right behind being the last team to let a black player into baseball with Pumpsie Green 12 years after Jackie Robinson?  Or was it getting caught spying on an opponent you were going to destroy anyway?

Kevin Faulk hauled in a pass on the 30.3-yard line. It was spotted at the 29.

Was this a slight dig insinuating that they actually converted the fourth down attempt?  So you’re saying that the second dumbest play in the history of Boston sports was not only statistically correct, but it was also successful if not for a bad spot?  Odd criteria for this award.

Scenario A (if the Pats converted): “The Patriots’ average win probability [was] 92 percent.”

I really, really want to know if he just pulled this number straight out of his ass.  92% seems way too low in that situation and I haven’t seen another site that is anywhere near that far away from 100%.

(Important note: If you were sitting next to a bookie after the Pats blew fourth-and-2, and that bookie said to you, “The odds of the Colts winning here are 34 percent; I will give you 3-to-1 odds that they score,” would you have taken that wager in a millisecond or a kajillasecond? I think we can throw that number out. Whatever.)

Important note:  Yes.  If any bookie was dumb enough to offer 3-1 when any gambling novice can figure out that the odds warrant a 2-1 payment, then most people would jump at it.  With all the talk about gambling by the sports guy, he sure doesn’t know much about odds making.

By this logic, Belichick also should have held a loaded pistol to his head on the sideline, spun the chamber and tried to shoot himself like Chris Walken in “The Deer Hunter.” If those 1-in-6 odds came through and he succeeded, we could have said, “Hey, he played the percentages: 83.6666 percent of the time, you don’t die in that situation! You can’t blame him for what happened!”

Almost too dumb for words.  But if I must, I guess I will say that since he did have to make a call in this Russian Roulette situation, that playing the odds is like picking the gun with 1 bullet loaded over the one with 2.  Yes, any Russian Roulette players reading this, please go with the stats and play the odds in this situation.

I don’t want to get into my thoughts about plus-minus data and all the inherent problems with it. Some other time. We’ll ignore the Durant lunacy for now. But to argue, insinuate or even blink that Tim Thomas is underrated — by any metric — cannot be allowed.

This tangent continues for a 4+ paragraphs.  What the hell does some idiot trying to invent a nonsensical basketball stat have to do with any of this?  The only good thing about it is that for a bit in this long ass article he is finally talking NBA which is something he knows, and busting on Tim Thomas who always deserves it.  I might have to chalk this whole article up to concentrating too much on the NBA book tour while doing peyote in the southwest.

The “Belichick made the right move” argument was nearly as dense. In the biggest game of the regular season, when a football coach tries something that — and this is coming from someone who watches 12 hours of football every Sunday dating back to elementary school — I cannot remember another team doing on the road in the last three minutes of a close game, that’s not “gutsy.”

Hang on Mr. Simmons, I have one more finger coming for ya...

So the game was too big, the spot light was too hot, the consequences too dire, so you should just forget about weighing your options and making what you believe to be the right call because Bill Simmons has never seen anybody else do it.  Wow.  THAT’S EXACTLY WHEN YOU SHOULD BE TRYING YOUR HARDEST TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION!  At what point can I just assume that he is an 8 year old putting his fingers in the ears and saying “na, na, na, na” because he doesn’t want to hear the truth?

I find it really, really, REALLY hard to believe they would have completed that play 56 times out of 100 times with how they lined up. They spread the field with five receivers, eliminating any chance of a run.

You think this is somehow a unique situation in the history of 4th and 2?  What about the times that they line up to obviously run?  That’s the power of the law of large numbers, over time the statistics will normalize themselves to most situations.

Given these realities, if you’re feeding me “Here’s what happened in this situation historically” numbers, shouldn’t we be looking at the data for two-point conversions?

Wait, what?  Stats don’t matter for football, unless I change the situation to something I hypothesize to be similar and the numbers then support my predetermined conclusion?  This tangent is too dumb for words.  I’m going to skip it for now and cheer him on for some more face / desk bashing.

One other note: The “disrespecting the defense” card doesn’t show up in stats.

As it shouldn’t.  It’s something you just made up.

And it’s dumb.

I asked Peter Newmann to research the number of times a team started and completed three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to erase a double-digit deficit and win an NFL game since 2005.

I hope Peter Newmann rolled his eyes and made fun of you at lunch with the other slide ruler junkies.  Here’s a hint:  the fact that you have hit a blackjack in each of the two previous shoes HAS ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING on whether you’ll hit a blackjack in this shoe.  Are you so desperate for stats to back you up that you’ll ignore the fact that the two other TDs that quarter have NOTHING to do with the final Colts drive?

You’re damned right I just went all caps.

Shit, so did I.  Sorry about that.  Complete ignorance of statistics sometimes does that to me.

Hold on, I have to repeatedly bang my head against my desk again.

I’ll hold.  If you want to do it a couple more times I’m also cool with waiting longer.

For instance, I had to drive from Seattle to Portland on Wednesday morning. The following factors were in play:

I really wonder sometimes if there is a word limit that the Sports Guy has to hit and if this story is just filler.  That’s the only rational reason I can come up with why in god’s name you’d spend that many words on a boring speeding ticket story.

The reward (of converting it) did not match the risk (the fallout from a demoralizing loss and a week’s worth of “What the hell happened?” questions, not to mention its impact on the team’s psyche).

So now I think we are getting much closer to the heart of Bill’s actual problem with the play:  the gambit didn’t work.  He is a fan of the Patriots and as such his thinking is trending much more results oriented than it should be.  Happens all the time in poker when you push all in pre-flop with pocket aces and lose to some junk 2-7 offsuit.  The conclusion should be that sometimes you make the best decision and variance bites you in the ass.  The conclusion should not be to fold pocket aces pre-flop.  (Interesting side note that heads up chances of AA winning are about 4 to 1 which is almost the same as Belichick’s odds of winning regardless of his decision here.)

It’s really telling that saying the reward of converting it (winning the game) isn’t worth the risk of answering questions from the media.  Uh, then I guess your concern really isn’t about doing everything to win this game, it’s more about protecting the fragile ego of the players when the big bad media sticks the mic in their face.  And that’s a terrible position to be arguing the validity of a single play from.  If you think this is that important of a point then I guess you will always want the Patriots to play it safe just on the off chance that a “risky” play doesn’t work out and later that week the pressure folds that player like origami.

Just… no.

Mr. Simmons, what you have just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Me and Ricky gonna roll that shit, light that shit, smoke it!

Alright, it’s time almost time for some NFL action.  I look forward to having a productive day of laying on the couch in my pajama pants nursing my hang over and watching some winners pile up.  God damn I’m hung over.

Biggest play of the day is Miami over Tampa Bay.  The Bucs got their first win, good for them.  They are terrible against the run facing the best in the league at running the ball.  Dolphins dominate.

Miami -10 over Tampa Bay -101  (1 unit)

New York Jets / Jacksonville UNDER 40.5 +106  (1 unit)

New Orleans -13.5 over St Louis -107  (4 units)

New England +3 over Indianapolis -118  (2 units)